EPB Macro Research Track Record
Spotting A Cyclical Rise In Inflation & Growth After COVID Lockdowns
"Hedging A Transitory Rise In Inflation" - July 2020
"Both growth and inflation indicators are rising in the short-run. It is most probable given the long-term forces that the current rise in growth and inflation expectations proves short-lived and entirely correlated to an expected pent-up demand rebound from the forced shutdowns. Still, adding commodity exposure to your portfolio to hedge the gains in bonds and prepare for a potential continuation of this trend remains a prudent choice."
Forecasting A Cyclical Slowdown In Economic Growth
"Q1 2019 Investment Themes" - January 2019
"Year over year GDP growth came in at 3.00% for Q3. It is expected that the growth rate ticks lower in Q4 as the final numbers are reported and lower still in Q1 of 2019 relative to Q4. As growth expectations continue to trend lower throughout Q1, risk assets will remain volatile, long-term yields should drop and cash will remain a strong investment."
Predicting Higher Gold Prices In 2019
"Thinking About 2019" - December 2018
"Rates need to move lower because of lower growth expectations and fewer rate hike expectations. If the incoming economic data continues to weaken, as it should be expected, and the Fed blinks, reducing rate hike expectations even more, short-term rates will fall, and gold will rally.
As the Federal Reserve is likely to walk back future monetary tightening expectations, short-term rates will fall and real rates will fall. Given this forecast, an increase in gold is likely."
Predicting Rate Cuts In 2019
"Oil Tanking & The Fed Stands Firm" - November 2018
"When 2-year rates start to move in the opposite direction of the Federal Funds rate, this is a clear sign from the market that the Federal Reserve has pushed too far and has made a mistake. If the market starts to forecast that interest rate hikes are done, which will happen after the December rate hike, then real interest rates on the short end of the curve will start to fall, and gold will likely begin to rally."
Calling The Peak In Interest Rates In 2018
"Should You Be Worried About This Rise In Interest Rates?" - October 2018
"If you buy long-term bonds today, it will prove fruitful as we have not yet seen the secular low in interest rates. Buying a 3.35% 30-year Treasury with the potential for new secular lows in interest rates over the next several years has enormous profit potential. I am still a buyer of the long bond."
Forecasting The End Of Quantitative Tightening In 2017
"The Math Behind Quantitative Tightening - Why It Will End Early" - December 2017
"Given how the math works out, I fail to see how the Federal Reserve will meet their expectations of balance sheet reductions. I think that the Federal Reserve will either slow down or flat out reverse their balance sheet reductions. The Fed is going to cause large contractions in the money supply. The process has just started and the growth in the money supply has already fallen from 7% in 2016 to 4% today. If this pace of monetary tightening continues, money supply growth will fall towards 0% and cause a massive hit to GDP growth. "
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