EPB Macro Research | Blog

Initial Conditions For Inflation: 1940s, 1970s & 2020s? Mar 19, 2021

Executive Summary

  • A period of aggressive monetary and fiscal support has ushered in a consensus view of sustained inflation.
  • Today's initial conditions are far different from the start of the last...
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The Money Supply Mystery Mar 03, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Broad money supply has surged to record levels in the United States, causing inflation fears and overstated claims citing the US Dollar demise.
  • A money-centric view of the...
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'Taper' Tantrum 2.0 Feb 22, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Interest rates are rising with a speed that is being referred to as the "taper tantrum 2.0"
  • Are yields really rising due to an expectation of the Fed reducing the size of its...
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Reflationary Momentum Has Not Subsided Feb 02, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Cyclical equities continue to outperform large-cap "defensive" equities.
  • The Treasury curve is bear steepening as long-term yields rise and short-term yields remain flat-to-down....
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The Role Of Gold In Your Portfolio Feb 02, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Gold plays a critical role in preserving wealth and should be considered in a context beyond a securities portfolio.
  • The long-history of gold and correlation to real interest...
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Unintended Consequences Feb 01, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Short-term interest rates are coming under pressure in a fashion that will require the Federal Reserve to defend the zero-lower-bound.
  • Rapid growth in total banking reserves will...
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