EPB Macro Research | Blog
Initial Conditions For Inflation: 1940s, 1970s & 2020s?
Mar 19, 2021
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Executive Summary
- A period of aggressive monetary and fiscal support has ushered in a consensus view of sustained inflation.
- Today's initial conditions are far different from the start of the last...
The Money Supply Mystery
Mar 03, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Broad money supply has surged to record levels in the United States, causing inflation fears and overstated claims citing the US Dollar demise.
- A money-centric view of the...
'Taper' Tantrum 2.0
Feb 22, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Interest rates are rising with a speed that is being referred to as the "taper tantrum 2.0"
- Are yields really rising due to an expectation of the Fed reducing the size of its...
Reflationary Momentum Has Not Subsided
Feb 02, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Cyclical equities continue to outperform large-cap "defensive" equities.
- The Treasury curve is bear steepening as long-term yields rise and short-term yields remain flat-to-down....
The Role Of Gold In Your Portfolio
Feb 02, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Gold plays a critical role in preserving wealth and should be considered in a context beyond a securities portfolio.
- The long-history of gold and correlation to real interest...
Unintended Consequences
Feb 01, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Short-term interest rates are coming under pressure in a fashion that will require the Federal Reserve to defend the zero-lower-bound.
- Rapid growth in total banking reserves will...