EPB Macro Research

Initial Conditions For Inflation: 1940s, 1970s & 2020s? Mar 19, 2021

A period of aggressive monetary and fiscal support has ushered in a consensus view of sustained inflation.
Today's initial conditions are far different from the start of the last...

The Money Supply Mystery Mar 03, 2021

Broad money supply has surged to record levels in the United States, causing inflation fears and overstated claims citing the US Dollar demise.
A money-centric view of the...

'Taper' Tantrum 2.0 Feb 22, 2021

Interest rates are rising with a speed that is being referred to as the "taper tantrum 2.0"
Are yields really rising due to an expectation of the Fed reducing the size of its...

Reflationary Momentum Has Not Subsided Feb 02, 2021

Cyclical equities continue to outperform large-cap "defensive" equities.
The Treasury curve is bear steepening as long-term yields rise and short-term yields remain flat-to-down....

The Role Of Gold In Your Portfolio Feb 02, 2021

Gold plays a critical role in preserving wealth and should be considered in a context beyond a securities portfolio.
The long-history of gold and correlation to real interest...

Unintended Consequences Feb 01, 2021

Short-term interest rates are coming under pressure in a fashion that will require the Federal Reserve to defend the zero-lower-bound.
Rapid growth in total banking reserves will...

EPB Macro Research | Blog