EPB Macro Research | Blog
Cyclical Shift in Sight
Jun 24, 2021
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Executive Summary
- There's a cyclical shift in sight.
- Shorter leading indicators have started to peak.
- Coincident indicators are still rising.
- The probability of a downturn in economic growth is...
An Update On The Bond Market
May 10, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Long-term bonds have been a powerful addition to any portfolio over the last few decades. Over the multi-year view, that will remain the case.
- Long-term bonds perform poorly when...
US Economy Showing Strong Cyclical Momentum
Apr 29, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Preliminary Q1 GDP data was reported and showed strong cyclical momentum in the US economy.
- The housing sector and durable goods consumption sector continue to show...
Fiscal Stimulus: The Economy's Third Strike
Apr 14, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Interest rate policy has failed to generate an increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita.
- After interest rates reached the zero-bound, expansionary monetary policy in...
Initial Conditions For Inflation: 1940s, 1970s & 2020s?
Mar 19, 2021
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Executive Summary
- A period of aggressive monetary and fiscal support has ushered in a consensus view of sustained inflation.
- Today's initial conditions are far different from the start of the last...
The Money Supply Mystery
Mar 03, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Broad money supply has surged to record levels in the United States, causing inflation fears and overstated claims citing the US Dollar demise.
- A money-centric view of the...
'Taper' Tantrum 2.0
Feb 22, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Interest rates are rising with a speed that is being referred to as the "taper tantrum 2.0"
- Are yields really rising due to an expectation of the Fed reducing the size of its...
Reflationary Momentum Has Not Subsided
Feb 02, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Cyclical equities continue to outperform large-cap "defensive" equities.
- The Treasury curve is bear steepening as long-term yields rise and short-term yields remain flat-to-down....
The Role Of Gold In Your Portfolio
Feb 02, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Gold plays a critical role in preserving wealth and should be considered in a context beyond a securities portfolio.
- The long-history of gold and correlation to real interest...
Unintended Consequences
Feb 01, 2021
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Executive Summary
- Short-term interest rates are coming under pressure in a fashion that will require the Federal Reserve to defend the zero-lower-bound.
- Rapid growth in total banking reserves will...
