EPB Macro Research | Blog
Executive Summary
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Average hourly earnings is a poor measure of the labor market and inflation.
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Average hourly earnings frequently rise during recessions because hours worked (the denominator)...
Executive Summary
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has reduced the estimate for third-quarter GDP from over 6% to 3.7%.
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Inflation increased too early in the expansion, and real growth is declining....
Executive Summary
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Total employment growth cooled to 4.7% in August after the economy added significantly fewer jobs than expected.
- Cyclical employment growth declined and the average hours...
Executive Summary
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The consensus is looking for a gain of about 740,000 jobs on Friday, which would mark an increase in total payrolls growth.
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A headline jobs reading below 620,000 would mark a...
Executive Summary
- The importance of growth rate cycles on asset class performance
- How to track economic cycles
- Spotting economic inflection points
The Importance of Growth Cycles
The growth rate...
Executive Summary
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Private-sector leverage is too onerous to sustain high levels of new bank loan growth.
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High levels of debt restrict private loan growth, and the government sector uses more...
Executive Summary
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The economy has not closed the GDP gap relative to the pre-COVID trend in nominal or real per capita terms.
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Fiscal and monetary stimulus are proving to have massively...
Executive Summary
- Real GDP increased by 6.5% (SAAR) in Q2, likely marking the peak in growth on a year-over-year basis.
- Housing, inventory, and government spending dragged growth lower while...
Executive Summary
- There's a cyclical shift in sight.
- Shorter leading indicators have started to peak.
- Coincident indicators are still rising.
- The probability of a downturn in economic growth is...
Executive Summary
- Long-term bonds have been a powerful addition to any portfolio over the last few decades. Over the multi-year view, that will remain the case.
- Long-term bonds perform poorly when...
Executive Summary
- Preliminary Q1 GDP data was reported and showed strong cyclical momentum in the US economy.
- The housing sector and durable goods consumption sector continue to show...
Executive Summary
- Interest rate policy has failed to generate an increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita.
- After interest rates reached the zero-bound, expansionary monetary policy in...
