EPB Macro Research | Blog

The Problem With Average Hourly Earnings Sep 13, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Average hourly earnings is a poor measure of the labor market and inflation.

  • Average hourly earnings frequently rise during recessions because hours worked (the denominator)...

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Atlanta Fed Confirms Economic Slowdown Sep 10, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has reduced the estimate for third-quarter GDP from over 6% to 3.7%.

  • Inflation increased too early in the expansion, and real growth is declining....

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Cyclical Employment Growth Falls Further In August Sep 03, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Total employment growth cooled to 4.7% in August after the economy added significantly fewer jobs than expected.

  • Cyclical employment growth declined and the average hours...
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Payrolls Preview: What To Look For In Friday's Jobs Report Sep 01, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The consensus is looking for a gain of about 740,000 jobs on Friday, which would mark an increase in total payrolls growth.

  • A headline jobs reading below 620,000 would mark a...

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The Importance Of Growth Cycles Aug 20, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The importance of growth rate cycles on asset class performance
  • How to track economic cycles
  • Spotting economic inflection points

The Importance of Growth Cycles

The growth rate...

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Liquidity Trap: Private Leverage To Hinder Bank Loan Growth Aug 04, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Private-sector leverage is too onerous to sustain high levels of new bank loan growth.

  • High levels of debt restrict private loan growth, and the government sector uses more...

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The GDP Gap Jul 31, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The economy has not closed the GDP gap relative to the pre-COVID trend in nominal or real per capita terms.

  •  Fiscal and monetary stimulus are proving to have massively...

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Peak Growth Jul 29, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Real GDP increased by 6.5% (SAAR) in Q2, likely marking the peak in growth on a year-over-year basis.
  • Housing, inventory, and government spending dragged growth lower while...
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Cyclical Shift in Sight Jun 24, 2021

Executive Summary

  • There's a cyclical shift in sight.
  • Shorter leading indicators have started to peak.
  • Coincident indicators are still rising.
  • The probability of a downturn in economic growth is...
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An Update On The Bond Market May 10, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Long-term bonds have been a powerful addition to any portfolio over the last few decades. Over the multi-year view, that will remain the case.
  • Long-term bonds perform poorly when...
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US Economy Showing Strong Cyclical Momentum Apr 29, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Preliminary Q1 GDP data was reported and showed strong cyclical momentum in the US economy.
  • The housing sector and durable goods consumption sector continue to show...
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Fiscal Stimulus: The Economy's Third Strike Apr 14, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Interest rate policy has failed to generate an increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita.
  • After interest rates reached the zero-bound, expansionary monetary policy in...
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