EPB Macro Research | Blog

EPB Secular & Cyclical Economic Framework Dec 29, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends.

  • Secular trends are slow-moving and are impacted most closely by demographics and debt.

  • ...

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Where Is The Debt? A Breakdown Of U.S. Debt To GDP Dec 17, 2021

 

Executive Summary

  • The 2008 crisis was characterized by excessive debt in the single-family home market and the financial sector.

  • Since the last major crisis, the single-family home...

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The Global Demographic Vortex Oct 26, 2021

 

Executive Summary

  • All major economies are suffering from aging demographics.

  • An economy gets a boost from the 25-54-year-old age cohort and suffers a drag from the 65+-year-old age...

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Are You Worried About Rent Inflation? Sep 15, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The rate of inflation is starting to peak and move lower.

  • The decline in durables inflation will more than offset the increase in services and rent inflation.

  • The...

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The Problem With Average Hourly Earnings Sep 13, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Average hourly earnings is a poor measure of the labor market and inflation.

  • Average hourly earnings frequently rise during recessions because hours worked (the denominator)...

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Atlanta Fed Confirms Economic Slowdown Sep 10, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has reduced the estimate for third-quarter GDP from over 6% to 3.7%.

  • Inflation increased too early in the expansion, and real growth is declining....

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Cyclical Employment Growth Falls Further In August Sep 03, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Total employment growth cooled to 4.7% in August after the economy added significantly fewer jobs than expected.

  • Cyclical employment growth declined and the average hours...
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Payrolls Preview: What To Look For In Friday's Jobs Report Sep 01, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The consensus is looking for a gain of about 740,000 jobs on Friday, which would mark an increase in total payrolls growth.

  • A headline jobs reading below 620,000 would mark a...

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The Importance Of Growth Cycles Aug 20, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The importance of growth rate cycles on asset class performance
  • How to track economic cycles
  • Spotting economic inflection points

The Importance of Growth Cycles

The growth rate...

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Liquidity Trap: Private Leverage To Hinder Bank Loan Growth Aug 04, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Private-sector leverage is too onerous to sustain high levels of new bank loan growth.

  • High levels of debt restrict private loan growth, and the government sector uses more...

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The GDP Gap Jul 31, 2021

Executive Summary

  • The economy has not closed the GDP gap relative to the pre-COVID trend in nominal or real per capita terms.

  •  Fiscal and monetary stimulus are proving to have massively...

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Peak Growth Jul 29, 2021

Executive Summary

  • Real GDP increased by 6.5% (SAAR) in Q2, likely marking the peak in growth on a year-over-year basis.
  • Housing, inventory, and government spending dragged growth lower while...
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