EPB Macro Research | Blog
Executive Summary
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The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends.
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Secular trends are slow-moving and are impacted most closely by demographics and debt.
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Executive Summary
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The 2008 crisis was characterized by excessive debt in the single-family home market and the financial sector.
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Since the last major crisis, the single-family home...
Executive Summary
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All major economies are suffering from aging demographics.
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An economy gets a boost from the 25-54-year-old age cohort and suffers a drag from the 65+-year-old age...
Executive Summary
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The rate of inflation is starting to peak and move lower.
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The decline in durables inflation will more than offset the increase in services and rent inflation.
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The...
Executive Summary
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Average hourly earnings is a poor measure of the labor market and inflation.
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Average hourly earnings frequently rise during recessions because hours worked (the denominator)...
Executive Summary
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has reduced the estimate for third-quarter GDP from over 6% to 3.7%.
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Inflation increased too early in the expansion, and real growth is declining....
Executive Summary
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Total employment growth cooled to 4.7% in August after the economy added significantly fewer jobs than expected.
- Cyclical employment growth declined and the average hours...
Executive Summary
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The consensus is looking for a gain of about 740,000 jobs on Friday, which would mark an increase in total payrolls growth.
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A headline jobs reading below 620,000 would mark a...
Executive Summary
- The importance of growth rate cycles on asset class performance
- How to track economic cycles
- Spotting economic inflection points
The Importance of Growth Cycles
The growth rate...
Executive Summary
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Private-sector leverage is too onerous to sustain high levels of new bank loan growth.
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High levels of debt restrict private loan growth, and the government sector uses more...
Executive Summary
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The economy has not closed the GDP gap relative to the pre-COVID trend in nominal or real per capita terms.
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Fiscal and monetary stimulus are proving to have massively...
Executive Summary
- Real GDP increased by 6.5% (SAAR) in Q2, likely marking the peak in growth on a year-over-year basis.
- Housing, inventory, and government spending dragged growth lower while...
