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[Chart Of Interest]: Employment Growth

May 08, 2022


The [Chart of Interest] post is a weekly blog spotlighting a highly informative chart and the significance on asset markets through the lens of the EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework.


[Chart Of Interest]: Employment Growth

April's employment report showed a fractional decline in job growth, falling to 4.5% from 4.6% in March when measured via a smoothed six-month annualized growth rate.

The four corners of the economy graphed below work in a cyclical fashion, feeding on each other, so it is highly unlikely to see employment growth hold a deviating trend from the rest of the economy.

While the economy continues to broadly cycle lower, payroll growth is the only major segment that remains in a positive trend.

By definition, as aggregate real economic growth trends lower and moves closer to the 0% line, recession risk is rising.

So it's fair to say recession risk is rising, but it is premature to make a recession forecast without employment growth joining the other three factors in a sustained downtrend.



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