EPB Macro Research | Blog
The "Monthly Macro" post is a once-per-month, informative article that helps investors develop a more strategic view of the world through a deeper understanding of the economy, interest...
The [Chart of Interest] post is a weekly blog spotlighting a highly informative chart and the significance on asset markets through the lens of the EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework....
The [Chart of Interest] post is a weekly blog spotlighting a highly informative chart and the significance on asset markets through the lens of the EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework.
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Executive Summary
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Sustained increases in government size reduce long-term economic growth.
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Government spending distorts incentives that reduce productivity and efficiency.
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These comments are...
Executive Summary
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The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends.
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Secular trends are slow-moving and are impacted most closely by demographics and debt.
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...
Executive Summary
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The 2008 crisis was characterized by excessive debt in the single-family home market and the financial sector.
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Since the last major crisis, the single-family home...
Executive Summary
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All major economies are suffering from aging demographics.
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An economy gets a boost from the 25-54-year-old age cohort and suffers a drag from the 65+-year-old age...
Executive Summary
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The rate of inflation is starting to peak and move lower.
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The decline in durables inflation will more than offset the increase in services and rent inflation.
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The...
Executive Summary
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Average hourly earnings is a poor measure of the labor market and inflation.
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Average hourly earnings frequently rise during recessions because hours worked (the denominator)...
Executive Summary
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has reduced the estimate for third-quarter GDP from over 6% to 3.7%.
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Inflation increased too early in the expansion, and real growth is declining....
Executive Summary
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Total employment growth cooled to 4.7% in August after the economy added significantly fewer jobs than expected.
- Cyclical employment growth declined and the average hours...
Executive Summary
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The consensus is looking for a gain of about 740,000 jobs on Friday, which would mark an increase in total payrolls growth.
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A headline jobs reading below 620,000 would mark a...
